By Michael Murray
NFL Outsider
As a public service to the Green Bay fans among us, I won’t bother to mention the debacle that took place last Saturday night, when the Packers choked away a 21-3 halftime lead in Chicago.
I won’t bring up the fact that they dominated the first half only to appear in the second half as though they were playing the sport for the first time.
I won’t raise the second-most-common question I’ve heard in recent days from fans: Is it just us, or does it seem like the Packers always get out-coached in the second half of games? How can you go into a second half without considering the notion that the opponent might actually — get this — make some adjustments?
And on a related note, I won’t mention the most common question among fans, something along the lines of whether the head coach deserves to keep his job in Green Bay. (As of Tuesday, he was still gainfully employed by the club.)
And besides, why would I want to use up valuable column inches on a team that didn’t even advance to the divisional round?
So I won’t address the Packers at all.
Instead, let’s just jump right into the picks:
Saturday, Jan. 17
4:30 p.m., CBS
(6) Buffalo at (1) Denver: Here’s what oddsmakers really think of Denver: The AFC’s top-seeded Broncos are at home, coming off a first-round bye and are still 1.5-point underdogs to the sixth-seeded Bills.
Of course, odds are set based on what oddsmakers think bettors will do with their money, so the reality is that the betting public thinks the Bills are slightly better than the Broncos despite Denver’s apparent advantages of rest and home field. I tend to agree. The two star units in this game are Denver’s No. 2 overall defense and Buffalo’s No. 4 overall offense. The Broncos lead the league in sacks, but the Bills lead the league in rushing. I see Buffalo as the better overall roster and more versatile offense, and that should be enough.
The pick: Bills by 3.
8 p.m., Fox
(6) San Francisco at (1) Seattle: These division rivals split in the regular season, with the Niners claiming a 17-13 win in Week 1 in Seattle and the Seahawks posting a 13-3 victory in Week 18 to claim the top seed in the NFC. Since that Week 18 matchup is our most recent memory of Seattle in action, it holds a place of prominence. It was a dominating performance by the Seahawks defense, and defense usually translates well in the postseason. Those who doubt Seattle here tend to raise questions about quarterback Sam Darnold, and those questions are certainly fair. But I see the Seattle defense overcoming any shortcomings of the team’s offense.
The pick: Seahawks by 6.
Sunday, Jan. 18
3 p.m., ABC/ESPN
(5) Houston at (2) New England: There is no truth to the rumor that I’m president of the U.P. chapter of the Mike Vrabel fan club. If there were such an organization formed in honor of New England’s first-year coach, however, I would certainly consider running for office. The Patriots finished 4-13 in 2024, hired Vrabel as head coach and have since gone 15-3 (counting the victory over the Chargers on Sunday). With Drake Maye emerging as a star at quarterback, this team should be formidable for years to come. No team in the AFC scored more points than New England’s 490, and no team in the AFC gave up fewer points than Houston’s 295. The Patriots are better overall, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Texans pull off an upset.
The pick: Patriots by 3.
6:30 p.m., NBC/Peacock
(5) L.A. Rams at (2) Chicago: After their first-half performance against the Packers on Saturday, the Bears shouldn’t be here. But I have to give them credit for consistently fighting through deficits. This game could become a track meet, with offenses racing up and down the field. If that happens, I have to ask which quarterback I trust more with the game on the line. I give the edge to Matthew Stafford over Caleb Williams.
The pick: Rams by 4.
My record last week (straight up): 5-1.
My record this season (straight up): 180-97-1 (64.9%).